Comparing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) enrollment data death dates to the National Death Index (NDI).

PURPOSE: In the United States, the National Death Index (NDI) is the most complete source of death information, while epidemiologic studies with mortality outcomes often rely on U.S. Medicare data for outcome ascertainment. The purpose of this study was to assess the agreement of death information between the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Medicare enrolment data and NDI. METHODS: Using Medicare and NDI data from 1999 through 2016, we identified Medicare beneficiaries who were reported dead in the CMS Medicare enrolment database (EDB) and Common Medicare Environment (CME), linked these beneficiaries to the NDI using CMS Health Insurance Claim number, and compared death dates between the two data sources. To assess agreement between our data sources, we calculated kappa scores; where a kappa of 1 indicates perfect agreement and a kappa of 0 indicates agreement equivalent to chance. We also examined CMS to NDI linkage and death date matching for stability over time. RESULTS: Of the 36 785 640, Medicare beneficiaries reported dead in CMS enrollment data from 1999 to 2016, 97.5% were linked to the NDI. A kappa score of 0.98 showed a near perfect agreement between NDI and CMS reported deaths. The percentage of linked cases exactly matching on death dates increased from 94.8% in 1999 to 99.4% in 2016. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest strong concordance between death dates as recorded by CMS enrollment data and the NDI in the entire Medicare population.

Pan-Cancer Prevalence of Microsatellite Instability-High (MSI-H) Identified by Circulating Tumor DNA and Associated Real-World Clinical Outcomes.

PURPOSE: Immune checkpoint inhibitors are approved for advanced solid tumors with microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H). Although several technologies can assess MSI-H status, detection and outcomes with circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-detected MSI-H are lacking. As such, we examined pan-cancer MSI-H prevalence across 21 cancers and outcomes after ctDNA-detected MSI-H. METHODS: Patients with advanced cancer who had ctDNA testing (Guardant360) from October 1, 2018, to June 30, 2022, were retrospectively assessed for prevalence. GuardantINFORM, which includes anonymized genomic and structured payer claims data, was queried to assess outcomes. Patients who initiated new treatment within 90 days of MSI-H detection were sorted into immunotherapy included in treatment (IO) or no immunotherapy included (non-IO) groups. Real-world time to treatment discontinuation (rwTTD) and real-world time to next treatment (rwTTNT) were assessed in months as proxies of progression-free survival (PFS); real-world overall survival (rwOS) was assessed in months. Cox regression tests analyzed differences. Colorectal cancer, non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), prostate cancer, gastroesophageal cancer, and uterine cancer (UC) were assessed independently; all other cancers were grouped. RESULTS: In total, 1.4% of 171,881 patients had MSI-H detected. Of 770 patients with outcomes available, rwTTD and rwTTNT were significantly longer for patients who received IO compared with non-IO for all cancers (P ≤ .05; hazard ratio [HR] range, 0.31-0.52 and 0.25-0.54, respectively) except NSCLC. rwOS had limited follow-up for all cohorts except UC (IO 39 v non-IO 23 months; HR, 0.18; P = .004); however, there was a consistent trend toward prolonged OS in IO-treated patients. CONCLUSION: These data support use of a well-validated ctDNA assay to detect MSI-H across solid tumors and suggest prolonged PFS in patients treated with IO-containing regimens after detection. Tumor-agnostic, ctDNA-based MSI testing may be reliable for rapid decision making.

Real-World Clinical Outcomes after Genomic Profiling of Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients with Previously Treated Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Comprehensive genomic profiling for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) can identify patients for molecularly targeted therapies that improve clinical outcomes. We analyzed data from 3084 patients (median age 65 years, 72.9% with adenocarcinoma) with advanced NSCLC registered in a real-world healthcare claims database (GuardantINFORMTM, Guardant Health) who underwent next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) testing (Guardant360®, Guardant Health) after first-line therapy (28.0% with agents targeted against genomic alterations). ctDNA was detected in 2771 samples (89.9%), of which 41.9% harbored actionable alterations, most commonly EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) mutations (29.7%). Actionable alterations were detected in 26.7% of patients (534/2001) previously treated with non-targeted agents. Emerging potentially targetable mutations were found in 40.1% (309/770) of patients previously treated with targeted therapies. Among patients with qualifying alterations detected by ctDNA testing, the time to treatment discontinuation (median 8.8 vs. 4.2 months; hazard ratio 1.97, p < 0.001) and overall survival (median 36.1 vs. 16.6 months; hazard ratio 2.08, p < 0.001) were longer for those who received matched second-line therapy versus unmatched second-line therapy. In real-world practice, results of a blood-based NGS assay prior to second-line treatment inform therapeutic decisions that can improve clinical outcomes for patients with advanced NSCLC.

Mortality Among Parkinson's Disease Patients Treated With Pimavanserin or Atypical Antipsychotics: An Observational Study in Medicare Beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: Pimavanserin, a serotonin 5-HT2 antagonist, is indicated for treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis. In premarketing trials in patients with Parkinson's disease psychosis, 11% of patients died during open-label pimavanserin treatment. Antipsychotics, which are used off-label in Parkinson's disease psychosis, increase mortality in dementia patients. The authors compared mortality with pimavanserin and atypical antipsychotics in a large database. METHODS: This was a retrospective new-user cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries with Parkinson's disease initiating pimavanserin (N=3,227) or atypical antipsychotics (N=18,442) from April 2016 to March 2019. All-cause mortality hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated for pimavanserin compared with atypical antipsychotics, using segmented proportional hazards regression over 1-180 and 181+ days of treatment. Potential confounding was addressed through inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: Pimavanserin users had a mean age of approximately 78 years, and 45% were female. Before IPTW, some comorbidities were more prevalent in atypical antipsychotic users; after IPTW, comorbidities were well balanced between groups. In the first 180 days of treatment, mortality was approximately 35% lower with pimavanserin than with atypical antipsychotics (hazard ratio=0.65, 95% CI=0.53, 0.79), with approximately one excess death per 30 atypical antipsychotic-treated patients; however, during treatment beyond 180 days, there was no additional mortality advantage with pimavanserin (hazard ratio=1.05, 95% CI=0.82, 1.33). Pimavanserin showed no mortality advantage in nursing home patients. CONCLUSIONS: Pimavanserin use was associated with lower mortality than atypical antipsychotic use during the first 180 days of treatment, but only in community-dwelling patients, not nursing home residents.

Comprehensive Genomic Profiling of Circulating Tumor DNA in Patients with Previously Treated Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: Analysis of a Real-World Healthcare Claims Database.

We used a real-world database (GuardantINFORMTM) to analyze the treatment choices for patients with mCRC who underwent next-generation sequencing of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) using a commercially available test (Guardant360®) after first- or second-line therapy. From 18,875 patients with claims for CRC, 1064 had confirmed metastatic disease and sufficient histories for analysis (median age 59 years, 44.8% female, 44.5% left-sided). ctDNA was detectable for 997/1064 (93.7%) patients. Clinically actionable molecular profiles were present for 507/1064 (47.7%) patients, including those who had not received targeted therapy in the previous line (410/926, 44.3%). Second- or third-line targeted therapies were administered to 338/1064 patients (31.8%) and were considered matched for 193/338 (57.1%) patients. Therapies administered after testing were informed by the ctDNA results in 56.7% of patients overall (603/1064). Time to treatment discontinuation was most favorable for patients with a clinically actionable ctDNA profile who received matched therapy. This analysis demonstrates the real-world clinical value of plasma-based comprehensive genomic profiling for selecting appropriate molecular-targeted therapies in mCRC patients with disease progression after first- or second-line therapy.

Risk of Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Recombinant Zoster Vaccine in Medicare Beneficiaries.

Importance: Guillain-Barré syndrome can be reported after vaccination. This study assesses the risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after administration of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV or Shingrix), which is administered in 2 doses 2 to 6 months apart. Objective: Use Medicare claims data to evaluate risk of developing Guillain-Barré syndrome following vaccination with zoster vaccine. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case series cohort study included 849 397 RZV-vaccinated and 1 817 099 zoster vaccine live (ZVL or Zostavax)-vaccinated beneficiaries aged 65 years or older. Self-controlled analyses included events identified from 2 113 758 eligible RZV-vaccinated beneficiaries 65 years or older. We compared the relative risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after RZV vs ZVL, followed by claims-based and medical record-based self-controlled case series analyses to assess risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome during a postvaccination risk window (days 1-42) compared with a control window (days 43-183). In self-controlled analyses, RZV vaccinees were observed from October 1, 2017, to February 29, 2020. Patients were identified in the inpatient, outpatient procedural (including emergency department), and office settings using Medicare administrative data. Exposures: Vaccination with RZV or ZVL vaccines. Main Outcomes and Measures: Guillain-Barré syndrome was identified in Medicare administrative claims data, and cases were assessed through medical record review using the Brighton Collaboration case definition. Results: Amongst those who received RZV vaccinees, the mean age was 74.8 years at first dose, and 58% were women, whereas among those who received the ZVL vaccine, the mean age was 74.3 years, and 60% were women. In the cohort analysis we detected an increase in risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome among RZV vaccinees compared with ZVL vaccinees (rate ratio [RR], 2.34; 95% CI, 1.01-5.41; P = .047). In the self-controlled analyses, we observed 24 and 20 cases during the risk and control period, respectively. Our claims-based analysis identified an increased risk in the risk window compared with the control window (RR, 2.84; 95% CI, 1.53-5.27; P = .001), with an attributable risk of 3 per million RZV doses (95% CI, 0.62-5.64). Our medical record-based analysis confirmed this increased risk (RR, 4.96; 95% CI, 1.43-17.27; P = .01). Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this case series cohort study indicate a slightly increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome during the 42 days following RZV vaccination in the Medicare population, with approximately 3 excess Guillain-Barré syndrome cases per million vaccinations. Clinicians and patients should be aware of this risk, while considering the benefit of decreasing the risk of herpes zoster and its complications through an efficacious vaccine, as risk-benefit balance remains in favor of vaccination.

Babesiosis Occurrence Among United States Medicare Beneficiaries, Ages 65 and Older, During 2006-2017: Overall and by State and County of Residence.

BACKGROUND: Human babesiosis is a mild-to-severe parasitic infection that poses health concerns especially in older and other at-risk populations. The study objective was to assess babesiosis occurrence among US Medicare beneficiaries, ages 65 and older, during 2006-2017. METHODS: Our retrospective claims-based study used Medicare databases. Babesiosis cases were identified using recorded diagnosis codes. The study estimated rates (per 100 000 beneficiary-years) overall, by year, diagnosis month, demographics, and state and county of residence. RESULTS: Nationwide, 19 469 beneficiaries had babesiosis recorded, at a rate of 6 per 100 000 person-years, ranging from 4 in 2006 to 9 in 2017 (P < .05). The highest babesiosis rates by state were in the following: Massachusetts (62), Rhode Island (61), Connecticut (51), New York (30), and New Jersey (19). The highest rates by county were in the following: Nantucket, Massachusetts (1089); Dukes, Massachusetts (236); Barnstable, Massachusetts (213); and Dutchess, New York (205). Increasing rates, from 2006 through 2017 (P < .05), were identified in multiple states, including states previously considered nonendemic. New Hampshire, Maine, Vermont, Pennsylvania, and Delaware saw rates increase by several times. CONCLUSIONS: Our 12-year study shows substantially increasing babesiosis diagnosis trends, with highest rates in well established endemic states. It also suggests expansion of babesiosis infections in other states and highlights the utility of real-world evidence.

Risk of serious spinal adverse events associated with epidural corticosteroid injections in the Medicare population.

BACKGROUND: Epidural corticosteroid injections (ESIs) are widely performed and have an unquantified risk of serious spinal adverse events (SSAEs). We sought to determine the rate of SSAEs following ESI and to compare the rates by spinal level, injection approach and corticosteroid formulation. METHODS: We included patients enrolled in Medicare parts A and B who had an ESI between 1 January 2009 and 30 September 2015. We identified potential cases as patients with spine-related diagnoses within 3 days after the first eligible ESI. Event categorization as probable, possible or non-case was based on review of medical records. The rates of probable and possible cases were expressed per 1 000 000 patients overall, and by spinal level, injection approach and corticosteroid formulation. A score test was used to compare these rates. RESULTS: We identified 1 355 957 eligible ESIs during the study period. Of the 110 potential cases, 43 were selected for medical record review and 11 were categorized as probable, yielding a rate of 8.1 per 1 000 000 patients (95% CI 4.5 to 14.5). Risk of SSAEs was statistically higher with cervical/thoracic injections (29.4, 95% CI 12.5 to 68.8) compared with lumbar/sacral injections (5.1, 95% CI 2.3 to 11.0) (p value 0.001). Event rates for lumbar/sacral non-transforaminal injections was 8.8 (95% CI 4.0 to 19.1). Event rates for particulate (7.5, 95% CI 3.9 to 14.2) and non-particulate formulations (13.1, 95% CI 3.6 to 47.9) appeared similar (p value 0.47). CONCLUSION: Between 2009 and 2015, rates of SSAEs following ESI in the Medicare population were low. Patients receiving cervical/thoracic ESIs were at higher risk of SSAE than those receiving lumbar/sacral ESIs. Event rates were similar for each corticosteroid formulation.

Guillain-Barré Syndrome After High-Dose Influenza Vaccine Administration in the United States, 2018-2019 Season.

BACKGROUND: The Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) identified a statistical signal for an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in days 1-42 after 2018-2019 high-dose influenza vaccine (IIV3-HD) administration. We evaluated the signal using Medicare. METHODS: We conducted early- and end-of-season claims-based self-controlled risk interval analyses among Medicare beneficiaries ages ≥65 years, using days 8-21 and 1-42 postvaccination as risk windows and days 43-84 as control window. The VSD conducted chart-confirmed analyses. RESULTS: Among 7 453 690 IIV3-HD vaccinations, we did not detect a statistically significant increased GBS risk for either the 8- to 21-day (odds ratio [OR], 1.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-3.44) or 1- to 42-day (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.78-2.18) risk windows. The findings from the end-of-season analyses were fully consistent with the early-season analyses for both the 8- to 21-day (OR, 1.64; 95% CI, 0.92-2.91) and 1- to 42-day (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.70-1.79) risk windows. The VSD's chart-confirmed analysis, involving 646 996 IIV3-HD vaccinations, with 1 case each in the risk and control windows, yielded a relative risk of 1.00 (95% CI, 0.06-15.99). CONCLUSIONS: The Medicare analyses did not exclude an association between IIV3-HD and GBS, but it determined that, if such a risk existed, it was similar in magnitude to prior seasons. Chart-confirmed VSD results did not confirm an increased risk of GBS.

Common variants in SOX-2 and congenital cataract genes contribute to age-related nuclear cataract.

Nuclear cataract is the most common type of age-related cataract and a leading cause of blindness worldwide. Age-related nuclear cataract is heritable (h2 = 0.48), but little is known about specific genetic factors underlying this condition. Here we report findings from the largest to date multi-ethnic meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (discovery cohort N = 14,151 and replication N = 5299) of the International Cataract Genetics Consortium. We confirmed the known genetic association of CRYAA (rs7278468, P = 2.8 × 10-16) with nuclear cataract and identified five new loci associated with this disease: SOX2-OT (rs9842371, P = 1.7 × 10-19), TMPRSS5 (rs4936279, P = 2.5 × 10-10), LINC01412 (rs16823886, P = 1.3 × 10-9), GLTSCR1 (rs1005911, P = 9.8 × 10-9), and COMMD1 (rs62149908, P = 1.2 × 10-8). The results suggest a strong link of age-related nuclear cataract with congenital cataract and eye development genes, and the importance of common genetic variants in maintaining crystalline lens integrity in the aging eye.

Comparison of propensity score methods for pre-specified subgroup analysis with survival data.

Examining medical products' benefits and risks in different population subsets is often necessary for informing public health decisions. In observational cohort studies, safety analyses by pre-specified subgroup can be powered, and are informative about different population subsets' risks if the study designs or analyses adequately control for confounding. However, few guidelines exist on how to simultaneously control for confounding and conduct subgroup analyses. In this simulation study, we evaluated the performance, in terms of bias, efficiency and coverage, of six propensity score methods in 24 scenarios by estimating subgroup-specific hazard ratios of average treatment effect in the treated with Cox regression models. The subgroup analysis methods control for confounding either by propensity score matching or by inverse probability treatment weighting. These methods vary as to whether they subset information or borrow it across subgroups to estimate the propensity score. Simulation scenarios varied by size of subgroup, strength of association of subgroup with exposure, strength of association of subgroup with outcome (simulated survival), and outcome incidence. Results indicated that subsetting the data by the subgrouping variable, to estimate the propensity score and hazard ratio, has the smallest bias, far exceeding any penalty in precision. Moreover, weighting methods pay a heavier price in bias than do matching methods when the propensity score model is misspecified and the subgrouping variable is a strong confounder.

Comparative Stroke, Bleeding, and Mortality Risks in Older Medicare Patients Treated with Oral Anticoagulants for Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) are alternatives to warfarin in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Randomized trials compared NOACs with warfarin, but none have compared individual NOACs against each other for safety and effectiveness. METHODS: We performed a retrospective new-user cohort study of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation enrolled in US Medicare who initiated warfarin (n = 183,318), or a standard dose of dabigatran (150 mg twice daily; n = 86,198), rivaroxaban (20 mg once daily; n = 106,389), or apixaban (5 mg twice daily; n = 73,039) between October 2010 and September 2015. Propensity score-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the outcomes of thromboembolic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, major extracranial bleeding, and all-cause mortality, comparing each NOAC with warfarin, and with each other NOAC. RESULTS: Compared with warfarin, each NOAC was associated with reduced risks of thromboembolic stroke (20%-29% reduction; P = .002 [dabigatran], P < 0.001 [rivaroxaban, apixaban]), intracranial hemorrhage (35%-62% reduction; P < 0.001 [each NOAC]), and mortality (19%-34% reduction; P < .001 [each NOAC]). The NOACs were similar for thromboembolic stroke but rivaroxaban was associated with increased risks of intracranial hemorrhage (vs dabigatran: HR = 1.71; 95% CI, 1.35-2.17), major extracranial bleeding (vs dabigatran: HR = 1.32; 95% CI, 1.21-1.45; vs apixaban: HR = 2.70; 95% CI, 2.38-3.05), and death (vs dabigatran: HR = 1.12; 95% CI, 1.01-1.24; vs apixaban: HR = 1.23; 95% CI, 1.09-1.38). Dabigatran was associated with reduced risk of intracranial hemorrhage (HR = 0.70; 95% CI ,0.53-0.94) and increased risk of major extracranial bleeding (HR = 2.04; 95% CI, 1.78-2.32) compared with apixaban. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients treated with standard-dose NOAC for nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and warfarin users with similar baseline characteristics, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban were associated with a more favorable benefit-harm profile than warfarin. Among NOAC users, dabigatran and apixaban were associated with a more favorable benefit-harm profile than rivaroxaban.

Genetic and lifestyle risk factors for MRI-defined brain infarcts in a population-based setting.

OBJECTIVE: To explore genetic and lifestyle risk factors of MRI-defined brain infarcts (BI) in large population-based cohorts. METHODS: We performed meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and examined associations of vascular risk factors and their genetic risk scores (GRS) with MRI-defined BI and a subset of BI, namely, small subcortical BI (SSBI), in 18 population-based cohorts (n = 20,949) from 5 ethnicities (3,726 with BI, 2,021 with SSBI). Top loci were followed up in 7 population-based cohorts (n = 6,862; 1,483 with BI, 630 with SBBI), and we tested associations with related phenotypes including ischemic stroke and pathologically defined BI. RESULTS: The mean prevalence was 17.7% for BI and 10.5% for SSBI, steeply rising after age 65. Two loci showed genome-wide significant association with BI: FBN2, p = 1.77 × 10-8; and LINC00539/ZDHHC20, p = 5.82 × 10-9. Both have been associated with blood pressure (BP)-related phenotypes, but did not replicate in the smaller follow-up sample or show associations with related phenotypes. Age- and sex-adjusted associations with BI and SSBI were observed for BP traits (p value for BI, p [BI] = 9.38 × 10-25; p [SSBI] = 5.23 × 10-14 for hypertension), smoking (p [BI] = 4.4 × 10-10; p [SSBI] = 1.2 × 10-4), diabetes (p [BI] = 1.7 × 10-8; p [SSBI] = 2.8 × 10-3), previous cardiovascular disease (p [BI] = 1.0 × 10-18; p [SSBI] = 2.3 × 10-7), stroke (p [BI] = 3.9 × 10-69; p [SSBI] = 3.2 × 10-24), and MRI-defined white matter hyperintensity burden (p [BI] = 1.43 × 10-157; p [SSBI] = 3.16 × 10-106), but not with body mass index or cholesterol. GRS of BP traits were associated with BI and SSBI (p ≤ 0.0022), without indication of directional pleiotropy. CONCLUSION: In this multiethnic GWAS meta-analysis, including over 20,000 population-based participants, we identified genetic risk loci for BI requiring validation once additional large datasets become available. High BP, including genetically determined, was the most significant modifiable, causal risk factor for BI.

Antihypertensive drug associated angioedema: effect modification by race/ethnicity.

PURPOSE: Assess angioedema risk with exposure to angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) compared with beta-blockers, by race/ethnicity. METHODS: New-user cohorts of Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older initiating ACEI, ARB, or beta-blocker treatment from March 2007 to March 2014 were constructed. Angioedema incidence rates by drug and race/ethnicity were computed for 1-30 and 31-365 days of treatment. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine angioedema risk between cohorts. RESULTS: Angioedema incidence rates (per 1000 person years) in beta-blocker users were 1.80 (whites), 4.11 (blacks), 1.89 (Asians), and 2.10 (Hispanics); in ACEI users, 4.03, 23.77, 2.94, and 4.27; and in ARB users, 1.73, 3.11, 1.10, and 1.90, respectively. Incidence rates were significantly higher in the first 30 days of exposure for all drug × race/ethnic groups. Overall, angioedema risk increased among ACEI users (hazard ratio, 2.91; 95% confidence interval, 2.75-3.07) but not ARB users (0.93, 0.85-1.02) versus beta-blocker users. Angioedema risk with ACEIs versus beta-blockers increased more in blacks (6.28, 5.44-7.24) than whites (2.33, 2.19-2.48), Hispanics (2.04, 1.36-3.07), and Asians (1.48, 0.94-2.35). Compared with white beta-blocker users, angioedema risk was increased 2.9-fold in whites, 20.2-fold in blacks, and 2.3-fold in other race/ethnic groups combined during the first 30 days of ACEI exposure. CONCLUSIONS: There was significant effect modification of angioedema risk by race and ACEI use for blacks, but not for other race/ethnicity groups. Angioedema risk was significantly greater in the first 30 days of exposure for all, and highest among blacks.

New insights into the genetics of primary open-angle glaucoma based on meta-analyses of intraocular pressure and optic disc characteristics.

Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG), the most common optic neuropathy, is a heritable disease. Siblings of POAG cases have a ten-fold increased risk of developing the disease. Intraocular pressure (IOP) and optic nerve head characteristics are used clinically to predict POAG risk. We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of IOP and optic disc parameters and validated our findings in multiple sets of POAG cases and controls. Using imputation to the 1000 genomes (1000G) reference set, we identified 9 new genomic regions associated with vertical cup-disc ratio (VCDR) and 1 new region associated with IOP. Additionally, we found 5 novel loci for optic nerve cup area and 6 for disc area. Previously it was assumed that genetic variation influenced POAG either through IOP or via changes to the optic nerve head; here we present evidence that some genomic regions affect both IOP and the disc parameters. We characterized the effect of the novel loci through pathway analysis and found that pathways involved are not entirely distinct as assumed so far. Further, we identified a novel association between CDKN1A and POAG. Using a zebrafish model we show that six6b (associated with POAG and optic nerve head variation) alters the expression of cdkn1a. In summary, we have identified several novel genes influencing the major clinical risk predictors of POAG and showed that genetic variation in CDKN1A is important in POAG risk.

Stroke, Bleeding, and Mortality Risks in Elderly Medicare Beneficiaries Treated With Dabigatran or Rivaroxaban for Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation.

Importance: Dabigatran and rivaroxaban are non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants approved for stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). There are no randomized head-to-head comparisons of these drugs for stroke, bleeding, or mortality outcomes. Objective: To compare risks of thromboembolic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), major extracranial bleeding including major gastrointestinal bleeding, and mortality in patients with nonvalvular AF who initiated dabigatran or rivaroxaban treatment for stroke prevention. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective new-user cohort study of 118 891 patients with nonvalvular AF who were 65 years or older, enrolled in fee-for-service Medicare, and who initiated treatment with dabigatran or rivaroxaban from November 4, 2011, through June 30, 2014. Differences in baseline characteristics were adjusted using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights based on propensity scores. The data analysis was performed from May 7, 2015, through June 30, 2016. Exposures: Dabigatran, 150 mg, twice daily; rivaroxaban, 20 mg, once daily. Main Outcomes and Measures: Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the primary outcomes of thromboembolic stroke, ICH, major extracranial bleeding including major gastrointestinal bleeding, and mortality, with dabigatran as reference. Adjusted incidence rate differences (AIRDs) were also estimated. Results: A total of 52 240 dabigatran-treated and 66 651 rivaroxaban-treated patients (47% female) contributed 15 524 and 20 199 person-years of on-treatment follow-up, respectively, during which 2537 primary outcome events occurred. Rivaroxaban use was associated with a statistically nonsignificant reduction in thromboembolic stroke (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.65-1.01; P = .07; AIRD = 1.8 fewer cases/1000 person-years), statistically significant increases in ICH (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.20-2.26; P = .002; AIRD = 2.3 excess cases/1000 person-years) and major extracranial bleeding (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.32-1.67; P < .001; AIRD = 13.0 excess cases/1000 person-years), including major gastrointestinal bleeding (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.23-1.59; P < .001; AIRD = 9.4 excess cases/1000 person-years), and with a statistically nonsignificant increase in mortality (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.32; P = .051; AIRD = 3.1 excess cases/1000 person-years). In patients 75 years or older or with CHADS2 score greater than 2, rivaroxaban use was associated with significantly increased mortality compared with dabigatran use. The excess rate of ICH with rivaroxaban use exceeded its reduced rate of thromboembolic stroke. Conclusions and Relevance: Treatment with rivaroxaban 20 mg once daily was associated with statistically significant increases in ICH and major extracranial bleeding, including major gastrointestinal bleeding, compared with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily.

Assessing the Causality between Blood Pressure and Retinal Vascular Caliber through Mendelian Randomisation.

We aimed to determine the association between blood pressure (BP) and retinal vascular caliber changes that were free from confounders and reverse causation by using Mendelian randomisation. A total of 6528 participants from a multi-ethnic cohort (Chinese, Malays, and Indians) in Singapore were included in this study. Retinal arteriolar and venular caliber was measured by a semi-automated computer program. Genotyping was done using Illumina 610-quad chips. Meta-analysis of association between BP, and retinal arteriolar and venular caliber across three ethnic groups was performed both in conventional linear regression and Mendelian randomisation framework with a genetic risk score of BP as an instrumental variable. In multiple linear regression models, each 10 mm Hg increase in systolic BP, diastolic BP, and mean arterial BP (MAP) was associated with significant decreases in retinal arteriolar caliber of a 1.4, 3.0, and 2.6 µm, and significant decreases in retinal venular caliber of a 0.6, 0.7, and 0.9 µm, respectively. In a Mendelian randomisation model, only associations between DBP and MAP and retinal arteriolar narrowing remained yet its significance was greatly reduced. Our data showed weak evidence of a causal relationship between elevated BP and retinal arteriolar narrowing.

Evaluation of transethnic fine mapping with population-specific and cosmopolitan imputation reference panels in diverse Asian populations.

There has been limited success in identifying causal variants underlying association signals observed in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The use of 1000 Genomes Project (1KGP) allows the imputation to estimate the genetic information at untyped variants. However, long stretches of high linkage disequilibrium within the genome prevent us from differentiating between causal variants and perfect surrogates, thus limiting our ability to identify causal variants. Transethnic strategies have been proposed as a possible solution to mitigate this. However, these studies generally rely on imputing genotypes from multiple ancestries from 1KGP but not against population-specific reference panels. Here, we perform the first transethnic fine-mapping study across three Asian cohorts from diverse ancestries at the loci implicated with eye and blood lipid traits, using population-specific reference panels that have been generated by whole-genome sequencing samples from the same ancestry groups. Our study outlines several challenges faced in a fine-mapping exercise where one simply aims to meta-analyse existing GWAS that have been imputed against reference haplotypes from the 1KGP.

Glaucoma in Asia: regional prevalence variations and future projections.

PURPOSE: To evaluate glaucoma prevalence and disease burden across Asian subregions from 2013 to 2040. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 23 population-based studies of 1318 primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) cases in 66,800 individuals and 691 primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) cases in 72,767 individuals in Asia. Regions in Asia were defined based on United Nations' (UN) classification of macro-geographic regions. PubMed, Medline and Web of Science databases were searched for population-based glaucoma prevalence studies using standardised criteria published to 31 December 2013. Pooled glaucoma prevalence for individuals aged 40-80 years was calculated using hierarchical Bayesian approaches. Prevalence differences by geographic subregion, subtype and habitation were examined with random effects meta-regression models. Estimates of individuals with glaucoma from 2013 to 2040 were based on the UN World Population Prospects. RESULTS: In 2013, pooled overall glaucoma prevalence was 3.54% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.83 to 6.28). POAG (2.34%, 95% CrI 0.96 to 4.55) predominated over PACG (0.73%, 95% CrI 0.18 to 1.96). With age and gender adjustment, PACG prevalence was higher in East than South East Asia (OR 5.55, 95% CrI 1.52 to 14.73), and POAG prevalence was higher in urban than rural populations (OR 2.11, 95% CrI 1.57 to 2.38). From 2013 to 2040, South Central Asia will record the steepest increase in number of glaucoma individuals from 17.06 million to 32.90 million compared with other Asian subregions. In 2040, South-Central Asia is also projected to overtake East Asia for highest overall glaucoma and POAG burden, while PACG burden remains highest in East Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Across the Asian subregions, there was greater glaucoma burden in South-Central and East Asia. Sustainable public health strategies to combat glaucoma in Asia are needed.